Continuing Jobless Claims at 20-Year High

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Jul10.html
Continuing Jobless Claims at 20-Year High

Reuters
Thursday, July 10, 2003; 9:02 AM

By Tim Ahmann

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of jobless Americans receiving benefits
hit its highest point in over 20 years last month, and new claims for
jobless aid unexpectedly rose again last week, the government said on
Thursday.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to a seasonally
adjusted 439,000 last week from a revised 434,000 the prior week, the Labor
Department said. Economists on Wall Street had expected claims to edge down
a bit to 425,000 from the 430,000 originally reported for the week ending
June 28.

The department also said the number of unemployed workers who remained on
the benefit rolls after filing an initial claim jumped by 87,000 to 3.82
million in the June 28 week, the highest level since February 1983.

Economists cautioned that the July 4 Independence Day holiday and auto plant
shutdowns made it more difficult to draw conclusions from the claims report.
Nonetheless, they said it showed persistent labor-market weakness.

"It was a holiday week so we don't take it too seriously. But there's not
good news for economy with the rise in the number of people making insured
employment claims," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's
Rating Service in New York.

"It's a continued jobless recovery," he said.

Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North
Carolina, agreed. "This would be a sign that the job market in general
remains pretty sluggish, and we wouldn't expect that to improve until growth
starts to pick up," he said.

Market reaction to the data, and a separate report showing a 0.8 percent
rise in import prices in June, was muted.

A Labor Department aide cautioned against relying too heavily on the latest
initial claims figure in gauging the jobs market, noting the auto plant
shutdowns for annual retooling could be affecting the figures.

"I really think we're in a period now when any one week should be
interpreted cautiously," he said, adding the four-week moving average of
claims would provide a better labor-market barometer. Still, he noted the
department's seasonal adjustment process had anticipated the plant
shutdowns.

The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes weekly volatility,
rose by a slight 1,000 to 426,750.

It was the second consecutive weekly gain in initial claims, which reached
their highest level in five weeks.

It was also the 21st consecutive week that claims have been over the 400,000
level, which economists say separates jobs' growth from loss.

The department said it was the longest string of weeks with claims over the
400,000 level since a jobs market downturn that ended in July 1992.

While most economists expect the economy to pick up over the remainder of
the year after a spiritless start, they warn that labor market conditions
may be slower to improve.

	#1
torresD	Continuing Jobless Claims at 20-Year High http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Jul10.html Continuing Jobless Claims at 20-Year High Reuters Thursday, July 10, 2003; 9:02 AM By Tim Ahmann WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of jobless Americans receiving benefits hit its highest point in over 20 years last month, and new claims for jobless aid unexpectedly rose again last week, the government said on Thursday. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week from a revised 434,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. Economists on Wall Street had expected claims to edge down a bit to 425,000 from the 430,000 originally reported for the week ending June 28. The department also said the number of unemployed workers who remained on the benefit rolls after filing an initial claim jumped by 87,000 to 3.82 million in the June 28 week, the highest level since February 1983. Economists cautioned that the July 4 Independence Day holiday and auto plant shutdowns made it more difficult to draw conclusions from the claims report. Nonetheless, they said it showed persistent labor-market weakness. "It was a holiday week so we don't take it too seriously. But there's not good news for economy with the rise in the number of people making insured employment claims," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's Rating Service in New York. "It's a continued jobless recovery," he said. Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina, agreed. "This would be a sign that the job market in general remains pretty sluggish, and we wouldn't expect that to improve until growth starts to pick up," he said. Market reaction to the data, and a separate report showing a 0.8 percent rise in import prices in June, was muted. A Labor Department aide cautioned against relying too heavily on the latest initial claims figure in gauging the jobs market, noting the auto plant shutdowns for annual retooling could be affecting the figures. "I really think we're in a period now when any one week should be interpreted cautiously," he said, adding the four-week moving average of claims would provide a better labor-market barometer. Still, he noted the department's seasonal adjustment process had anticipated the plant shutdowns. The four-week average of initial claims, which smoothes weekly volatility, rose by a slight 1,000 to 426,750. It was the second consecutive weekly gain in initial claims, which reached their highest level in five weeks. It was also the 21st consecutive week that claims have been over the 400,000 level, which economists say separates jobs' growth from loss. The department said it was the longest string of weeks with claims over the 400,000 level since a jobs market downturn that ended in July 1992. While most economists expect the economy to pick up over the remainder of the year after a spiritless start, they warn that labor market conditions may be slower to improve.