Trading front-runners

I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did
manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then
lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to
prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial
tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is
Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair
bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do
this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?

On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgambler@hotmail.co.uk>
wrote:

>On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
>> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did
>> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then
>> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to
>> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial
>> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is
>> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair
>> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do
>> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?
>
>Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the
>Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and
>prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good
>shortlist to start with.
>

I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives
an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I
use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners
style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create
a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and
ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available
when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race).

Take the fakenham 3.20 today

http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm

Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not
always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally
and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and
although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as
long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or
lower.

MartinK
www.patternform.co.uk

On 20 May, 10:02, Martin Kilgariff <N...@aRealEmailAddress.co.uk>
wrote:
> On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk>
> wrote:
>
> >On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
> >> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did
> >> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then
> >> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to
> >> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial
> >> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is
> >> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair
> >> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do
> >> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?
>
> >Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the
> >Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and
> >prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good
> >shortlist to start with.
>
> I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives
> an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I
> use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners
> style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create
> a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and
> ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available
> when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race).
>
> Take the fakenham 3.20 today
>
> http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm
>
> Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not
> always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally
> and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and
> although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as
> long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or
> lower.
>
> MartinKwww.patternform.co.uk

Thanks for that info Martin - very useful info indeed that. Things
have gone ok so far - left the first two races alone in the end as the
prices were too short and there was little form to go on. So far I
managed to get in and out of My Paris for a small profit but the real
profits came with Angus Newz and My Arch and it was a bonus that they
both won !

Be interested if anyone had any stats on courses that particularly
favour front-runners over the hold-up horses. I have an old Jon Gibby
book but not sure how up to date it is but it does state the following
tracks are favourable for front-runners, especially in sprints -:

Chester
Musselburgh
Ascot
Chepstow
Warwick
Windsor
Sandown

On 20 May, 17:02, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
> On 20 May, 10:02, Martin Kilgariff <N...@aRealEmailAddress.co.uk>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk>
> > wrote:
>
> > >On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
> > >> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did
> > >> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then
> > >> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to
> > >> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial
> > >> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is
> > >> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair
> > >> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do
> > >> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?
>
> > >Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the
> > >Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and
> > >prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good
> > >shortlist to start with.
>
> > I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives
> > an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I
> > use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners
> > style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create
> > a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and
> > ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available
> > when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race).
>
> > Take the fakenham 3.20 today
>
> >http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm
>
> > Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not
> > always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally
> > and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and
> > although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as
> > long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or
> > lower.
>
> > MartinKwww.patternform.co.uk
>
> Thanks for that info Martin - very useful info indeed that. Things
> have gone ok so far - left the first two races alone in the end as the
> prices were too short and there was little form to go on. So far I
> managed to get in and out of My Paris for a small profit but the real
> profits came with Angus Newz and My Arch and it was a bonus that they
> both won !
>
> Be interested if anyone had any stats on courses that particularly
> favour front-runners over the hold-up horses. I have an old Jon Gibby
> book but not sure how up to date it is but it does state the following
> tracks are favourable for front-runners, especially in sprints -:
>
> Chester
> Musselburgh
> Ascot
> Chepstow
> Warwick
> Windsor
> Sandown

Tonight we see one of the courses on the list Windsor and I've picked
out the following front-runners that are about the right price and
could prove worth a trade or two in-running...

6:40 Cake
Group Therapy may be the strong favourite here but Cake looks worth a
trade. Has done nothing wrong so far and the only quibble is hold-up
merchant Hughes is on, but this one has such pace I think he will ride
it as he did on her debut.

7:10 My Secrets
A couple could make the running here but Mark Johnston swings the
balance in My Secrets favour although there may not be too much of a
contraction in price in-running to justify a sizeable trade.

7:40 Princely Vale
A poor race but this track should suit Princely Vale and I often like
to get front-runners on their first run as they are generally a bit
too keen. The good thing is that not too much needs to be risked on
this trade as he is likely to be available at 20's+ on Betfair and
could trade lower in-running.

8:10 Tobermory
I'm always on the look out for fast, well-bred animals and this one
fits the bill tonight, although there are more than a few in the race
so minimum stakes. However, she is by Green Desert owned by Sheikh
Mohammed and I just feel she will be much better on this fast surface
than she has shown so far on soft and the all-weather.

Happy Trading

SecretG wrote:
> On 20 May, 10:02, Martin Kilgariff <N...@aRealEmailAddress.co.uk>
> wrote:
>> On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote:
>>>> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did
>>>> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then
>>>> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to
>>>> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial
>>>> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is
>>>> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair
>>>> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do
>>>> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?
>>> Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the
>>> Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and
>>> prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good
>>> shortlist to start with.
>> I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives
>> an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I
>> use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners
>> style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create
>> a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and
>> ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available
>> when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race).
>>
>> Take the fakenham 3.20 today
>>
>> http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm
>>
>> Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not
>> always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally
>> and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and
>> although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as
>> long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or
>> lower.
>>
>> MartinKwww.patternform.co.uk
>
> Thanks for that info Martin - very useful info indeed that. Things
> have gone ok so far - left the first two races alone in the end as the
> prices were too short and there was little form to go on. So far I
> managed to get in and out of My Paris for a small profit but the real
> profits came with Angus Newz and My Arch and it was a bonus that they
> both won !
>
> Be interested if anyone had any stats on courses that particularly
> favour front-runners over the hold-up horses. I have an old Jon Gibby
> book but not sure how up to date it is but it does state the following
> tracks are favourable for front-runners, especially in sprints -:
>
> Chester
> Musselburgh
> Ascot
> Chepstow
> Warwick
> Windsor
> Sandown

Epsom and Brighton are both great for front runners. Consider any sharp
track with an easy/short run-in. I can't agree with you about Chepstow,
esp, NH.

	#1
SecretG	Trading front-runners I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ?

	#2
Martin Kilgariff	Re: Trading front-runners On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgambler@hotmail.co.uk> wrote: >On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote: >> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did >> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then >> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to >> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial >> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is >> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair >> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do >> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ? > >Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the >Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and >prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good >shortlist to start with. > I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race). Take the fakenham 3.20 today http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or lower. MartinK www.patternform.co.uk

	#5
Mike Muppet	Re: Trading front-runners SecretG wrote: > On 20 May, 10:02, Martin Kilgariff <N...@aRealEmailAddress.co.uk> > wrote: >> On 20 May 2007 00:30:24 -0700, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> >> wrote: >> >>> On 19 May, 15:23, SecretG <secretgamb...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote: >>>> I am only a relatively small stakes player in this respect but I did >>>> manage to back the front-running El Dececy at 13.5 pre-race and then >>>> lay it back at around the 3 mark. It's amazing the over-reaction to >>>> prices on prominant runners in some races - especially on terrestial >>>> tv on a Saturday. In the 3:35 one of the few front-runners is >>>> Shabernak, I am hoping that I will be able to lay him back at a fair >>>> bit shorter than 50's at some point in the race. Does anyone else do >>>> this or have any other strategies they use for in-running trading ? >>> Well, maybe kick this off with the approach I use. I often look at the >>> Raceform Update as they tend to highlight front-runners (L - Led) and >>> prominant racers (P) on their racecards and this gives a good >>> shortlist to start with. >> I've added a pace element to the patternform site which try's to gives >> an indication of where the pace in a race is likely to come from. I >> use the comments from the RP site to give a numeric value to a runners >> style of running in each race +9 = hold up, -9 = led/EP. I then create >> a "average" value the median of the fasted 5 ratings. It's a rough and >> ready approach but the comments from the last 10 runs are available >> when you move the mouse over the "red squares" (one for each race). >> >> Take the fakenham 3.20 today >> >> http://www.patternform.co.uk/fakenha...0_320_pace.htm >> >> Green Go is the most likely front runner who usually leads (but not >> always). New Perk and Monzon tend to chase and Red Scally >> and Englishtown are held up. Green Go should get an easy lead and >> although 4th in the betting at around 7.0 is not a forlorn hope and as >> long as his jumping holds up should be able to trade back IR at 5.0 or >> lower. >> >> MartinKwww.patternform.co.uk > > Thanks for that info Martin - very useful info indeed that. Things > have gone ok so far - left the first two races alone in the end as the > prices were too short and there was little form to go on. So far I > managed to get in and out of My Paris for a small profit but the real > profits came with Angus Newz and My Arch and it was a bonus that they > both won ! > > Be interested if anyone had any stats on courses that particularly > favour front-runners over the hold-up horses. I have an old Jon Gibby > book but not sure how up to date it is but it does state the following > tracks are favourable for front-runners, especially in sprints -: > > Chester > Musselburgh > Ascot > Chepstow > Warwick > Windsor > Sandown Epsom and Brighton are both great for front runners. Consider any sharp track with an easy/short run-in. I can't agree with you about Chepstow, esp, NH.