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Rest of the summer?
I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result in the worst summer since 1987 in the north and east and possibly 1980 in the south and west (based on number of warm, settled spells). However I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion as there are several examples where August weather was completely different to July. The worst summer in recent years, 1998, improved dramatically in August so could the same not happen this year? Conversely, last year the very good weather of the early summer ended in August which was somewhat below average for settled weather (though much better than this year). Other years such as 1981 followed the 1998 pattern, and more recently, a spell of bad weather in early July 2002 gave way to generally passable conditions for the remainder of the summer. Differences between July and August seem quite common. So do the pessimistic predictions have any real basis or is there still room for improvement? Unfortunately we seem to have slipped back into poor weather after last week's "normal" conditions (in the south at least) but there's still the end of July and whole of August. Nick |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
nick150971@yahoo.co.uk wrote:
> I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest > of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result > in the worst summer since 1987 in the north and east and possibly 1980 > in the south and west (based on number of warm, settled spells). > However I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion as there are several > examples where August weather was completely different to July. The > worst summer in recent years, 1998, improved dramatically in August so > could the same not happen this year? Conversely, last year the very > good weather of the early summer ended in August which was somewhat > below average for settled weather (though much better than this year). > Other years such as 1981 followed the 1998 pattern, and more recently, > a spell of bad weather in early July 2002 gave way to generally > passable conditions for the remainder of the summer. Differences > between July and August seem quite common. > > So do the pessimistic predictions have any real basis or is there > still room for improvement? Unfortunately we seem to have slipped back > into poor weather after last week's "normal" conditions (in the south > at least) but there's still the end of July and whole of August. > > Nick > No scientific basis Nick, just an hunch from the pattern of the weather this year. I think the summer will come in August, September and the first half of October. It maybe wishful thinking, but when hope is lost, all is lost ! -- Joe Egginton Wolverhampton ~175m ASL |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
Joe Egginton wrote: > nick150971@yahoo.co.uk wrote: > > I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest > > of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result > > in the worst summer since 1987 in the north and east and possibly 1980 > > in the south and west (based on number of warm, settled spells). > > However I'm not sure it's a foregone conclusion as there are several > > examples where August weather was completely different to July. The > > worst summer in recent years, 1998, improved dramatically in August so > > could the same not happen this year? Conversely, last year the very > > good weather of the early summer ended in August which was somewhat > > below average for settled weather (though much better than this year). > > Other years such as 1981 followed the 1998 pattern, and more recently, > > a spell of bad weather in early July 2002 gave way to generally > > passable conditions for the remainder of the summer. Differences > > between July and August seem quite common. > > > > So do the pessimistic predictions have any real basis or is there > > still room for improvement? Unfortunately we seem to have slipped back > > into poor weather after last week's "normal" conditions (in the south > > at least) but there's still the end of July and whole of August. > > > > Nick > > > > > No scientific basis Nick, just an hunch from the pattern of the weather > this year. I think the summer will come in August, September and the > first half of October. > > It maybe wishful thinking, but when hope is lost, all is lost ! I'm halfway through downloading all the sea level charts for 1998 in the N Atlantic from Wetterzentrale. If anyone wants a file when I am done let me know. |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
In message <1184580297.420798.114680@22g2000hsm.googlegroups. com>,
nick150971@yahoo.co.uk writes > >I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest >of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result [snip] I think you should take a longer term average when you ascribe "bad" to the current summer. The "oh my gawd it's a scorcher" [1] wasn't as common in the 60s and 70s if my memory serves. As someone who doesn't particularly like >80F I am not complaining. [1] tabloid journalism -- Tim http://www.pitfieldbeershop.co.uk/ |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
"Tim" <tim@nospam.osvif.demon.co.uk> wrote in message news:NPkI04L8l7mGFwCy@nospam.osvif.demon.co.uk... > In message <1184580297.420798.114680@22g2000hsm.googlegroups. com>, > nick150971@yahoo.co.uk writes >> >>I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest >>of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result > [snip] > > I think you should take a longer term average when you ascribe "bad" to > the current summer. The "oh my gawd it's a scorcher" [1] wasn't as common > in the 60s and 70s if my memory serves. As someone who doesn't > particularly like >80F I am not complaining. Even by the standard of the 50's & 60's I wonder if this summer is turning out to be pretty poor. The incessant rainfall, not only in intensity but hardly a day goes by without rain, seemingly for weeks now. The woeful lack of sunshine. Yes, temperatues aren't all that supressed but that appears to be down more to relatively high night minima than anything else. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
"Col" <reddwarfer2@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message news:5g1uocF3eh0peU1@mid.individual.net... > > "Tim" <tim@nospam.osvif.demon.co.uk> wrote in message > news:NPkI04L8l7mGFwCy@nospam.osvif.demon.co.uk... >> In message <1184580297.420798.114680@22g2000hsm.googlegroups. com>, >> nick150971@yahoo.co.uk writes >>> >>>I'm continually hearing people predicting that the whole of the rest >>>of the summer will be bad, due to the jet stream, which would result >> [snip] >> >> I think you should take a longer term average when you ascribe "bad" to >> the current summer. The "oh my gawd it's a scorcher" [1] wasn't as common >> in the 60s and 70s if my memory serves. As someone who doesn't >> particularly like >80F I am not complaining. > > Even by the standard of the 50's & 60's I wonder if this summer is > turning out to be pretty poor. The incessant rainfall, not only in > intensity but hardly a day goes by without rain, seemingly for weeks > now. The woeful lack of sunshine. Yes, temperatues aren't all that > supressed but that appears to be down more to relatively high > night minima than anything else. > -- > Although look on the bright side - at least you can sleep at night (although night time temperatures have been creeping up recently). The summer may be crap so far, but there is nothing you can do about it - you have to make the most of what little good weather there is. It won't be like this forever. Adam |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
"Adam Lea" <asrlea@btinternet.com> wrote in message news:zOidneEYWMS2cwbbnZ2dnUVZ8qWhnZ2d@bt.com... > > "Col" <reddwarfer2@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message > news:5g1uocF3eh0peU1@mid.individual.net... >> >> Even by the standard of the 50's & 60's I wonder if this summer is >> turning out to be pretty poor. The incessant rainfall, not only in >> intensity but hardly a day goes by without rain, seemingly for weeks >> now. The woeful lack of sunshine. Yes, temperatues aren't all that >> supressed but that appears to be down more to relatively high >> night minima than anything else. > Although look on the bright side - at least you can sleep at night > (although night time temperatures have been creeping up recently). To be honest though I've never had any trouble sleeping even in conditions when the forecasters insist I should. > The summer may be crap so far, but there is nothing you can do about it - > you have to make the most of what little good weather there is. It won't > be like this forever. Yes, like on Saturday when once the light morning showers had passed I managed to at least start sorting out the weeds in the garden. In places it was an absolute quagmire, I don't recall it ever being like that in the middle of summer before. Even the top surface of soil has barely been dry in weeks. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
Col wrote: > "Adam Lea" <asrlea@btinternet.com> wrote in message > news:zOidneEYWMS2cwbbnZ2dnUVZ8qWhnZ2d@bt.com... >> >> "Col" <reddwarfer2@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message >> news:5g1uocF3eh0peU1@mid.individual.net... > >>> >>> Even by the standard of the 50's & 60's I wonder if this summer is >>> turning out to be pretty poor. The incessant rainfall, not only in >>> intensity but hardly a day goes by without rain, seemingly for weeks >>> now. The woeful lack of sunshine. Yes, temperatues aren't all that >>> supressed but that appears to be down more to relatively high >>> night minima than anything else. > >> Although look on the bright side - at least you can sleep at night >> (although night time temperatures have been creeping up recently). > > To be honest though I've never had any trouble sleeping even in > conditions when the forecasters insist I should. > >> The summer may be crap so far, but there is nothing you can do about >> it - you have to make the most of what little good weather there is. >> It won't be like this forever. > > Yes, like on Saturday when once the light morning showers had passed > I managed to at least start sorting out the weeds in the garden. In > places it was an absolute quagmire, I don't recall it ever being like > that in the middle of summer before. Even the top surface of soil has > barely been dry in weeks. I have only had 16.5mm of rain in July up to today and temperature maxima over the last few days have been in the 22°C to 24°C with only the odd light shower. The rainfall radar has shown very heavy rain not far away but this has missed us so far. The garden is loving the weather; last summer the soft fruit shivelled on the plants and the brassica plants only started growing when it cooled down a bit in August and some rain arrived. It just shows tha varaibility in conditions that can occur over the country which can only be captured if there is a dnse network of weather stations to pick this up. Alan Gardiner Chiswell Green, St Albans 101m ASL |
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Re: Rest of the summer?
In message <hf0ni.28870$fi4.4460@newsfe7-win.ntli.net>, Alan Gardiner
<alan.gardiner@poppet.com> writes > > >Col wrote: >> "Adam Lea" <asrlea@btinternet.com> wrote in message >> news:zOidneEYWMS2cwbbnZ2dnUVZ8qWhnZ2d@bt.com... >>> >>> "Col" <reddwarfer2@tiscali.co.uk> wrote in message >>> news:5g1uocF3eh0peU1@mid.individual.net... >> >>>> >>>> Even by the standard of the 50's & 60's I wonder if this summer is >>>> turning out to be pretty poor. The incessant rainfall, not only in >>>> intensity but hardly a day goes by without rain, seemingly for weeks >>>> now. The woeful lack of sunshine. Yes, temperatues aren't all that >>>> supressed but that appears to be down more to relatively high >>>> night minima than anything else. >> >>> Although look on the bright side - at least you can sleep at night >>> (although night time temperatures have been creeping up recently). >> >> To be honest though I've never had any trouble sleeping even in >> conditions when the forecasters insist I should. >> >>> The summer may be crap so far, but there is nothing you can do about >>> it - you have to make the most of what little good weather there is. >>> It won't be like this forever. >> >> Yes, like on Saturday when once the light morning showers had passed >> I managed to at least start sorting out the weeds in the garden. In >> places it was an absolute quagmire, I don't recall it ever being like >> that in the middle of summer before. Even the top surface of soil has >> barely been dry in weeks. > >I have only had 16.5mm of rain in July up to today and temperature maxima >over the last few days have been in the 22°C to 24°C with only the odd light >shower. The rainfall radar has shown very heavy rain not far away but this >has missed us so far. The garden is loving the weather; last summer the soft >fruit shivelled on the plants and the brassica plants only started growing >when it cooled down a bit in August and some rain arrived. It just shows tha >varaibility in conditions that can occur over the country which can only be >captured if there is a dnse network of weather stations to pick this up. > > >Alan Gardiner >Chiswell Green, St Albans >101m ASL Indeed. 39mm here so far this month, only about 10 miles from you, Alan. About 12 mm of that fell in 5 minutes on Sunday afternoon. Norman (delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail) -- Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l. England |
