I'm confused

I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for
this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some
sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the
afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light
winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C."

However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather
warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods
of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and
overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery
rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are
likely to give some large totals ..."

So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a
severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe
weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or
does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's
left hand is doing?

Anne
To reply replace the rock with my surname

"Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:XaKdnRPp_89NrQTbnZ2dnUVZ8surnZ2d@bt.com...
> I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for
> this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some
> sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the
> afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light
> winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C."
>
> However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather
> warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods
> of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and
> overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery
> rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are
> likely to give some large totals ..."
>
> So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a
> severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe
> weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or
> does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's
> left hand is doing?
>
> Anne

Anne, assuming you're in eastern Scotland.. the early warning is valid from
0000 on Sunday until 1800 on Monday and the heavy rain mentioned in the
warning may not reach your area before midnight on Monday and even that's
uncertain due to the erratic nature of developments over the next 24-48
hours.

Jon.

Thanks Jon.

But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.
There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office
overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which
doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take
notice when they ought to.

Anne

"Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:XaKdnRPp_89NrQTbnZ2dnUVZ8surnZ2d@bt.com...
Or
> does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's left hand
> is doing?

yes your're correct the right does NOT know what the left is doing - even
within the confines of the BBC itself, never mind in unison with the Met
Office which is typical of BBC Online Weather site. I think a lot of problem
is whoever updates the Online side of its presentation they/he/she need a
bullet up their proverbials and thats too good for them/he/she Sometimes
when you complain about a BBC online website error it "magically" gets
changed within say a few days. I suspect someones on this newsgroup either
does it or knows the person persons who do.

Oh I didnt know Isobel Lang had decamped over to Sky. And anymore preggy
weather women? There was another recently I saw. Now on another matter
wheres that awful daughter of Bobby Charlton these days? sorry I'm getting
carried away...blah blah

DR

"Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:zPmdnVE0ApW82QTbnZ2dnUVZ8sSrnZ2d@bt.com...
> Thanks Jon.
>
> But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
> for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.

It's essentially due to the fact that the early warnings are done on a
national basis and the map covers the risk areas from the beginning of the
warning period until the end.

Can I ask that you send your thoughts/comments to enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk
as updates/improvements to the site and procedures are continually taking
place.

Jon.

On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 22:15:33 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke"
<jon_orourke@hotmail.com> wrote:

>Anne, assuming you're in eastern Scotland.

The 17:00 News 24 forecast for Scotland for Sunday and Monday indicated
nothing out of the ordinary. I've warned workman that we have arriving
on Monday that a weather warning is in force predicting a 40% chance of
disrupting rain.

I appreciate that it's all very difficult but ...

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 23:13:59 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke"
<jon_orourke@hotmail.com> wrote:

>Can I ask that you send your thoughts/comments to enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk
>as updates/improvements to the site and procedures are continually taking
>place.

I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail to
pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk querying no records before 1914.

I'm not holding my breath.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On 14 Jul, 22:41, "Anne Burgess" <anne.andes...@btinternet.com> wrote:
> Thanks Jon.
>
> But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
> for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.
> There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office
> overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which
> doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take
> notice when they ought to.
>
> Anne

On the other hand theres a lovely thunderstorm just arriving on the
south coast @ hastings, as we speak..... according to

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

and

http://www.blitzortung.de/

Regards, Keith

On Jul 14, 9:20 pm, "Anne Burgess" <anne.andes...@btinternet.com>
wrote:
> I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for
> this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some
> sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the
> afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light
> winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C."
>
> However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather
> warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods
> of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and
> overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery
> rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are
> likely to give some large totals ..."
>
> So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a
> severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe
> weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or
> does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's
> left hand is doing?

The way I forecast the weather allows me to make use of errata in the
system like this like this:

When the traditional stuff goes pear shaped, then there is every
likelihood that a seriously large earthquake is in the offing off the
system.

I believe this is because the fundamental cause of waether is one and
the same with them and that because this theory is regarded as stupid
it is not allowed for in the internationala weather models.

If the international models are out by a factor of the energy of from:
7.0 Mag. = 32 million tons TNT. = Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan Quake, 1995;
Largest Thermonuclear Weapon.
To:
7.5 Mag. = 160 million tons TNT. = Landers, CA Quake, 1992
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html

Or the equivalent of a Super-Typhoon in the system, then it stands to
reason any forecasts made from the master copy are going to contain
even more errors.

And since there is a growing reliance on such data at the expense of
weather-lore or as they'd probably prefer the term: human input......

Well, we'll have to see, eh?

On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 22:41:50 +0100, "Anne Burgess"
<anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote:

>But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
>for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.
>There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office
>overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which
>doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take
>notice when they ought to.

It's 'all change' this morning :-)

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 22:41:50 +0100, "Anne Burgess"
<anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote:

>Thanks Jon.
>
>But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
>for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.
>There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office
>overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which
>doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take
>notice when they ought to.

I had to smile that Dorset was for a day or so splodged with red, but
it has disappeared (Sunday morning). I suspect that the 'Spanish
Plume' was difficult to quantify, as it were, so a broad brush
approach was taken.We only had modest amounts of rain last night.
Not a bad day today, despite the charts of a few days ago, so off for
gardening.
R

In message <zPmdnVE0ApW82QTbnZ2dnUVZ8sSrnZ2d@bt.com>, Anne Burgess
<anne.andesite@btinternet.com> writes
>Thanks Jon.
>
>But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map
>for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday.
>There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office
>overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which
>doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take
>notice when they ought to.
>
>Anne
>

Some very uncomplimentary remarks about weather forecasting at the golf
club here this morning. It was the second round of the Club Championship
and yesterday there had been fears that today might be a washout, on the
basis of the severe weather warning that was current yesterday. The
fears proved totally unfounded as there hasn't been a drop of rain.

At 11 p.m. last night I looked at the Heathrow long TAF valid
0000z-2400z today. It predicted moderate rain 0600z-1300z with a 30
percent probability of heavy rain 0600z-1200z. A bit pessimistic in view
of the actual weather this morning :-(

Over the past couple of years or so I reckon that out of all the
occasions on which there was an early warning of severe weather for this
part of the country the severe weather has actually occurred on less
than 10 percent of the occasions. Typically in the early warnings the
probability of disruption due to severe weather in this area is given as
somewhere in the range 30-60 percent, sometimes a little less than that
and sometimes a bit more. For those probabilities to verify it would
suggest that the severe weather should actually occur on something like
40-50 percent of occasions on which the early warnings are issued. If
the severe weather actually occurs on less than 10 percent of the
occasions, as I believe to be the case in this part of the world, then
it would appear that there is a significant systematic
overly-pessimistic bias in the warnings. Either the models appear to be
overcooking it or those issuing the warnings are adding a "cover the
backside" factor.

Anne's point about crying wolf too often is very well made.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Alan White wrote:
> On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 23:13:59 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke"
> <jon_orourke@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Can I ask that you send your thoughts/comments to
>> enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk as updates/improvements to the site and
>> procedures are continually taking place.
>
> I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail to
> pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk querying no records before 1914.
>
> I'm not holding my breath.

I did the same but to a different email address at the Met Office. I pointed
out that they hold records on their very own website for rainfall which go
back as far as 1780 which makes the claim about records starting in 1914
absurd.

I'm not holding my breath either.

Alan

	#1
Anne Burgess	I'm confused I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C." However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are likely to give some large totals ..." So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's left hand is doing? Anne To reply replace the rock with my surname

	#2
Jon O'Rourke	Re: I'm confused "Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote in message news:XaKdnRPp_89NrQTbnZ2dnUVZ8surnZ2d@bt.com... > I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for > this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some > sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the > afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light > winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C." > > However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather > warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods > of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and > overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery > rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are > likely to give some large totals ..." > > So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a > severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe > weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or > does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's > left hand is doing? > > Anne Anne, assuming you're in eastern Scotland.. the early warning is valid from 0000 on Sunday until 1800 on Monday and the heavy rain mentioned in the warning may not reach your area before midnight on Monday and even that's uncertain due to the erratic nature of developments over the next 24-48 hours. Jon.

	#3
Anne Burgess	Re: I'm confused Thanks Jon. But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday. There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take notice when they ought to. Anne

	#4
Dave R. west London	Re: I'm confused "Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote in message news:XaKdnRPp_89NrQTbnZ2dnUVZ8surnZ2d@bt.com... Or > does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's left hand > is doing? yes your're correct the right does NOT know what the left is doing - even within the confines of the BBC itself, never mind in unison with the Met Office which is typical of BBC Online Weather site. I think a lot of problem is whoever updates the Online side of its presentation they/he/she need a bullet up their proverbials and thats too good for them/he/she Sometimes when you complain about a BBC online website error it "magically" gets changed within say a few days. I suspect someones on this newsgroup either does it or knows the person persons who do. Oh I didnt know Isobel Lang had decamped over to Sky. And anymore preggy weather women? There was another recently I saw. Now on another matter wheres that awful daughter of Bobby Charlton these days? sorry I'm getting carried away...blah blah DR

	#6
Alan White	Re: I'm confused On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 22:15:33 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke" <jon_orourke@hotmail.com> wrote: >Anne, assuming you're in eastern Scotland. The 17:00 News 24 forecast for Scotland for Sunday and Monday indicated nothing out of the ordinary. I've warned workman that we have arriving on Monday that a weather warning is in force predicting a 40% chance of disrupting rain. I appreciate that it's all very difficult but ... -- Alan White Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent. Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland. Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

	#8
Keith Wassell	Re: I'm confused On 14 Jul, 22:41, "Anne Burgess" <anne.andes...@btinternet.com> wrote: > Thanks Jon. > > But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map > for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday. > There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office > overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which > doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take > notice when they ought to. > > Anne On the other hand theres a lovely thunderstorm just arriving on the south coast @ hastings, as we speak..... according to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ and http://www.blitzortung.de/ Regards, Keith

	#9
Weatherlawyer	Re: I'm confused On Jul 14, 9:20 pm, "Anne Burgess" <anne.andes...@btinternet.com> wrote: > I've just looked at the Met Office web site. The forecast for > this area for tomorrow (Sunday) says, "bright day with some > sunny spells, though a scattering of sharp showers around in the > afternoon, these mainly inland. Feeling pleasantly warm in light > winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C." > > However the wee map is red, and sure enough there is a weather > warning saying, "The Met Office is forecasting further periods > of heavy rain during the next few days. During Sunday and > overnight into Monday, outbreaks of locally heavy and thundery > rain are expected to move northwards across the UK and are > likely to give some large totals ..." > > So if it's going to be bright with sunny spells, why is there a > severe weather warning? Or conversely, if there is a severe > weather warning why is this not reflected in the forecast? Or > does the Met Office's right hand not know what the Met Office's > left hand is doing? The way I forecast the weather allows me to make use of errata in the system like this like this: When the traditional stuff goes pear shaped, then there is every likelihood that a seriously large earthquake is in the offing off the system. I believe this is because the fundamental cause of waether is one and the same with them and that because this theory is regarded as stupid it is not allowed for in the internationala weather models. If the international models are out by a factor of the energy of from: 7.0 Mag. = 32 million tons TNT. = Hyogo-Ken Nanbu, Japan Quake, 1995; Largest Thermonuclear Weapon. To: 7.5 Mag. = 160 million tons TNT. = Landers, CA Quake, 1992 http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/lo...magnitude.html Or the equivalent of a Super-Typhoon in the system, then it stands to reason any forecasts made from the master copy are going to contain even more errors. And since there is a growing reliance on such data at the expense of weather-lore or as they'd probably prefer the term: human input...... Well, we'll have to see, eh?

	#11
Robin Nicholson	Re: I'm confused On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 22:41:50 +0100, "Anne Burgess" <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> wrote: >Thanks Jon. > >But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map >for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday. >There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office >overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which >doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take >notice when they ought to. I had to smile that Dorset was for a day or so splodged with red, but it has disappeared (Sunday morning). I suspect that the 'Spanish Plume' was difficult to quantify, as it were, so a broad brush approach was taken.We only had modest amounts of rain last night. Not a bad day today, despite the charts of a few days ago, so off for gardening. R

	#12
Norman Lynagh	Re: I'm confused In message <zPmdnVE0ApW82QTbnZ2dnUVZ8sSrnZ2d@bt.com>, Anne Burgess <anne.andesite@btinternet.com> writes >Thanks Jon. > >But if that is the case, there is no need to have the red map >for Sunday - it could just have been left green until Monday. >There's such a thing as 'crying wolf' and if the Met Office >overdoes the incidence of warnings of sever weather which >doesn't then happen, people won't believe them, and won't take >notice when they ought to. > >Anne > Some very uncomplimentary remarks about weather forecasting at the golf club here this morning. It was the second round of the Club Championship and yesterday there had been fears that today might be a washout, on the basis of the severe weather warning that was current yesterday. The fears proved totally unfounded as there hasn't been a drop of rain. At 11 p.m. last night I looked at the Heathrow long TAF valid 0000z-2400z today. It predicted moderate rain 0600z-1300z with a 30 percent probability of heavy rain 0600z-1200z. A bit pessimistic in view of the actual weather this morning :-( Over the past couple of years or so I reckon that out of all the occasions on which there was an early warning of severe weather for this part of the country the severe weather has actually occurred on less than 10 percent of the occasions. Typically in the early warnings the probability of disruption due to severe weather in this area is given as somewhere in the range 30-60 percent, sometimes a little less than that and sometimes a bit more. For those probabilities to verify it would suggest that the severe weather should actually occur on something like 40-50 percent of occasions on which the early warnings are issued. If the severe weather actually occurs on less than 10 percent of the occasions, as I believe to be the case in this part of the world, then it would appear that there is a significant systematic overly-pessimistic bias in the warnings. Either the models appear to be overcooking it or those issuing the warnings are adding a "cover the backside" factor. Anne's point about crying wolf too often is very well made. Norman. (delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail) -- Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l. England

	#13
Alan Gardiner	Re: I'm confused Alan White wrote: > On Sat, 14 Jul 2007 23:13:59 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke" > <jon_orourke@hotmail.com> wrote: > >> Can I ask that you send your thoughts/comments to >> enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk as updates/improvements to the site and >> procedures are continually taking place. > > I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail to > pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk querying no records before 1914. > > I'm not holding my breath. I did the same but to a different email address at the Met Office. I pointed out that they hold records on their very own website for rainfall which go back as far as 1780 which makes the claim about records starting in 1914 absurd. I'm not holding my breath either. Alan