Did the weather warnings change in the night?

I think Jon was right when he said it was a difficult situation to forecast.
I can't see the heavy rain on the weather warnings for the S.E overnight
anymore, altough I believe still possibly some thundery rain is forecast.
Back to the nowcasting, and look out of the window for a while , I guess.

Dave

"Dave Cornwell" <davemccignorethis@ignoreblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:tulmi.33495$iE5.18500@fe3.news.blueyonder.co. uk...
> I think Jon was right when he said it was a difficult situation to
forecast.
> I can't see the heavy rain on the weather warnings for the S.E overnight
> anymore, altough I believe still possibly some thundery rain is forecast.
> Back to the nowcasting, and look out of the window for a while , I guess.
>
> Dave
>

Dave, the early warning has now been superseded by the issue of flash
warnings. As you and others have noted it's a difficult situation,
particularly with respect to the detail, and I think this was reflected in
the probabilities used in the early warnings.

Re your area, the GFS, amongst other models, has been fairly consistent in
developing a wave/MCS like feature overnight along the cold front and
running it across the far SE, hence you may see something later. E.g. the
06Z GFS T+24 http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs213.gif

Jon.

"Dave Cornwell" <davemccignorethis@ignoreblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message
news:tulmi.33495$iE5.18500@fe3.news.blueyonder.co. uk...
> I think Jon was right when he said it was a difficult situation to
forecast.
> I can't see the heavy rain on the weather warnings for the S.E overnight
> anymore, altough I believe still possibly some thundery rain is forecast.
> Back to the nowcasting, and look out of the window for a while , I guess.
>
> Dave
>

Dave, the early warning has now been superseded by the issue of flash
warnings. As you and others have noted it's a difficult situation,
particularly with respect to the detail, and I think this was reflected in
the probabilities used in the early warnings.

Re your area, the GFS, amongst other models, has been fairly consistent in
developing a wave/MCS like feature overnight along the cold front and
running it across the far SE, hence you may see something later. E.g. the
06Z GFS T+24 http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

Jon.

	#1
Dave Cornwell	Did the weather warnings change in the night? I think Jon was right when he said it was a difficult situation to forecast. I can't see the heavy rain on the weather warnings for the S.E overnight anymore, altough I believe still possibly some thundery rain is forecast. Back to the nowcasting, and look out of the window for a while , I guess. Dave

	#2
Jon O'Rourke	Re: Did the weather warnings change in the night? "Dave Cornwell" <davemccignorethis@ignoreblueyonder.co.uk> wrote in message news:tulmi.33495$iE5.18500@fe3.news.blueyonder.co. uk... > I think Jon was right when he said it was a difficult situation to forecast. > I can't see the heavy rain on the weather warnings for the S.E overnight > anymore, altough I believe still possibly some thundery rain is forecast. > Back to the nowcasting, and look out of the window for a while , I guess. > > Dave > Dave, the early warning has now been superseded by the issue of flash warnings. As you and others have noted it's a difficult situation, particularly with respect to the detail, and I think this was reflected in the probabilities used in the early warnings. Re your area, the GFS, amongst other models, has been fairly consistent in developing a wave/MCS like feature overnight along the cold front and running it across the far SE, hence you may see something later. E.g. the 06Z GFS T+24 http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs213.gif Jon.